From the Editor
Forecasting Challenges
Forecasting has always been a challenge. So much so, that those in charge of it have resorted to a myriad of tools ranging from the superstitious to the hyper-complex.
Luis Ayala
Farmers are always attempting to forecast the weather to decide when is the best time to plant, harvest and/or to protect crops against inclement weather or the seasonal emergence of pests.
Likewise, construction companies are constantly attempting to forecast industrial, commercial and residential trends, to anticipate material needs in order to better position themselves to profit from the demand.
Forecasting also applies to the alcohol beverage industry, where retail volume trends drive production/bottling, but where consumer preferences also drive innovation, as well as, Research and Development investments.
As complex as forecasting is on its own right, the pandemic and now the war in Ukraine (and the related embargoes and escalating tensions) are pouring an additional layer of difficulty onto an already cumbersome exercise.
New and expanding businesses are facing construction costs increasing at unprecedented rates while rising costs of commodities and finished goods affect consumers’ ability to maintain their spending habits intact.
If you are a distiller or bottler, do you see these forecasting challenges as reasons to scale back and wait for the return to “normal,” even if you lose customers? Or do you see the challenges as an opportunity to double down and increase your market share by servicing customers abandoned by other brands? Both approaches are valid and choosing one often times comes down to the personality of the people involved in making the decisions. In her poem “I Worry,” Pulitzer Prize winner Mary Oliver wrote:
“Finally I saw that worrying had come to nothing.
And gave it up.
And took my old body and went out into the morning, and sang.”
Cheers!
Luis Ayala,
Editor and Publisher